Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets -Nassim Nicholas Taleb

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Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets -Nassim Nicholas Taleb


SEROTONIN AND RANDOMNESS
Can we judge the success of people by their raw performance and their personal wealth? Sometimes but not always. We will see how, at any point in time, a large section of businessmen with outstanding track records will be no better than randomly thrown darts. More curiously, and owing to a peculiar bias, cases will abound of the least-skilled businessmen being the richest. However, they will fail to make an allowance for the role of luck in their performance.
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Lucky fools do not bear the slightest suspicion that they may be lucky fools - by definition, they do not know that they belong to such category. They will act as if they deserved the money. Their strings of successes will inject them with so much serotonin (or some similar substance) that they will even fool themselves about their ability to outperform markets (our hormonal system does not know whether our successes depend on randomness). One can notice it in their posture; a profitable trader will walk upright, dominant "style - and will tend to talk more than a losing trader. Scientists found out that serotonin, a neurotransmitter, seems to command a large share of our human behavior. It sets a positive feedback, the virtuous circle, but, owing to an external kick from randomness, can start a reverse motion and cause a vicious circle. It has been shown that monkeys injected with serotonin will rise in the pecking order, which in turn causes an increase of the serotonin level in their blood - until the virtuous cycle breaks and starts a vicious one (during the vicious cycle failure will cause one to slide in the pecking order, causing a behavior that will bring about further drops in the pecking order). Likewise, an increase in personal performance (regardless of whether it is caused deterministically or by the agency of lady Fortuna) induces a rise of serotonin in the subject, itself causing an increase of what is commonly called leadership ability. One is "on a roll". Some imperceptible changes in deportment, like an ability to express oneself with serenity and confidence, makes the subject look credible - as if he truly deserved the shekels. Randomness will be ruled out as a possible factor in the performance, until it rears its head once again and delivers the kick that will induce the vicious cycle.
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CLOSURE OF SINGAPORE RACE COURSE ON 26 MARCH, THURSDAY

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CLOSURE OF SINGAPORE RACE COURSE ON 26 MARCH, THURSDAY
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In view of Ministry of Health’s (MOH) latest Advisory “Tighter Measures to Minimise Further Spread of COVID-19 dated 24 March 2020”, the Singapore Race Course will be closed to the public on 26 March, Thursday. There will be no screening of overseas simulcast races at the Race Course.
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The Club’s top priority is the safety and well-being of our visitors and is committed to continue to operate our business in a safe and responsible manner. We will continue to adjust our COVID-19 precautionary measures as the situation changes.
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https://www.straitstimes.com/sport/coronavirus-singapore-race-course-will-be-closed-to-public-on-march-26
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Re: Kranji Friday 20th March 2020

Re: Kranji Friday 20th March 2020
Hero Mate Pianoman of https://www.kranjiracing.com/ - trial note n htw.class horses for Race 7 as follow :-
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7 2 SAFEER
7 4 YABADABADO-
7 6 SACRED CRIOX
7 7 SIAM WORRIOR
7 8 BE BEE
7 11 KARISTO-
7 12 LIM'S SAMURAI
7 14 PER INPOWER
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Invest -
1. Normal Forecast - Capital - S$56.00 - Dividend - S$6,484.00
2. Place Forecast -  Capital - S$56.00 - Dividend - S$$1,014.00 plus $285.00 plus $285.00 = S$1584.00
3. Trio - Capital - S$112.00 - Dividend - S$$5,224.00
4. Tierce - Capital - S$672.00 - Dividend - S$33,374.00 {sic}
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And you will laugh S$45,770.00 {sic} all the way to the Maybank
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Payout  S$6,484.00 plus S$1584.00 plus S$$5,224.00 plus S$33,374.00 = S$46,666.00 {sic}
Capital S$56.00 plus S$56.00 plus S$112.00 plus S$672.00 =  S$896.00
Winnings - Payout (Dividend) S$46,666.00 minus Capital (Outlay) S$896.00 = S$45,770.00 {sic}
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Do visit :
https://www.kranjiracing.com/kranji2/inside.php
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Permutation (Box)

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Re: Kranji Friday 20th March 2020
Race 7

http://www.singaporepools.com.sg/en/HorseRacing/Pages/ViewRaceResult/3656/7
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Let's be more realistic.

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Let's be more realistic.
We do not know exactly where or when our next winners will come from mates.

And kindly do not let me repeat and tell you that :-
Not unless you are a Goblok
ROFLMAO
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Out there, there are many people still unaware that they are a goblok, feeble-minded, shiok sendiri, kuning, Off spec, having jaundice, clueless, immature, a dope,  simpleton, gullible, senile, clinically brain dead, intoxicated, hallucinated, a biggest idiot or you have yet to recover from your hangover.

Mates, I can safely claim that's a statement of fact.
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We cannot control how people approach life and their problems, their attitudes are things that they alone can best solve, handle, control and change.

Nothing is as important as you are. I for one understand and always remember that you are absolute unique, just like everyone else. Take good care of thyself. Bet wisely, if you don"t no one else will.

Mates, relax and take it easy !! It's part and parcel of life.
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There are domains in which expertise is not possible. Stock picking and horse selections are two good example. And in long-term political strategic forecasting, it’s been shown that experts are just not better than a dice-throwing monkey.

There's a lot of randomness in the decisions that people make.

People have little idea, by and large, of the investment world. They are convinced they have an advantage.

"Whenever we can replace human judgment by a formula, we should at least consider it." -Daniel Kahneman

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ROFLMAO
Of course, there is no guarantee.
Again, there is no guarantee.
ROFLMAO
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